Serum adhesion molecule levels as prognostic markers in patients with early systemic sclerosis: a multicentre, prospective, observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the utility of circulating adhesion molecule levels as a prognostic indicator of disease progression in systemic sclerosis (SSc) patients with early onset disease. METHODS: Ninety-two Japanese patients with early onset SSc presenting with diffuse skin sclerosis and/or interstitial lung disease were registered in a multicentre, observational study. Concentrations of intercellular adhesion molecule (ICAM) -1, E-selectin, L-selectin, and P-selectin in serum samples from all patients were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent asssay (ELISA). In 39 patients, adhesion molecule levels were measured each year for four years. The ability of baseline adhesion molecule levels to predict subsequent progression and severity in clinical and laboratory features were evaluated statistically. RESULTS: At their first visit, serum levels of ICAM-1, E-selection, P-selectin were significantly elevated and serum L-selectin levels were significantly reduced in patients with SSc compared with healthy controls. Overall, serum ICAM-1 levels at each time point were significantly inversely associated with the %vital capacity (VC) of the same time and subsequent years by univariate analysis. The initial serum ICAM-1 levels were significantly inversely associated with the %VC at the fourth year by multiple regression analysis. The initial serum P-selectin levels were significantly associated with the health assessment questionnaire disability index (HAQ-DI) at the fourth year by multiple regression analysis. Initial adhesion molecule levels were not significantly associated with other clinical features including skin thickness score. Baseline adhesion molecule levels were not significantly associated with subsequent rate of change of clinical parameters. CONCLUSION: In patients with SSc, serum levels of ICAM-1 and P-selectin may serve as prognostic indicators of respiratory dysfunction and physical disability, respectively. Further longitudinal studies of larger populations are needed to confirm these findings.